Michael Burry / Nvidia / Palantir / Live Fight
Burry vs. The Crowd: Inside the $1.1B Bet Against Nvidia and Palantir
Michael Burry made his name betting against the last bubble. Late in 2025 he bet again — and half a year in, the scoreboard is split.
Michael Burry made his name betting against the last bubble. In late 2025 he bet again: $1.1 billion in put options against Nvidia and Palantir — the two stocks half of America now owns, one way or another, through their 401(k) if nowhere else.
Palantir’s own CEO called the bet crazy. The President praised the company on Truth Social. Burry rolled his puts and bought more.
Burry vs. The Crowd
One side is short on conviction. The other is long on consensus. Both can't be right.
Michael Burry — Scion Asset Management
Nvidia and Palantir are priced for an AI cycle that never disappoints — Burry is betting that assumption breaks.
The Crowd — Consensus / index flows
Two of the most owned AI names in the market, held on the thesis that infrastructure spend keeps compounding.
The Tell
Split scoreboard — the fight is still live
The scoreboard, half a year in
This is a live fight, on stocks that are very likely sitting in your own account right now, and the ending is still being written.
- Palantir has fallen by roughly a third since the position was disclosed — that side of the bet is printing.
- Nvidia has held its ground — that side is bleeding.
A split scoreboard is not a verdict. It’s the market telling you the fight isn’t over.
Why Sharp Money is watching this one
Sharp Money lives inside fights like this. Every day we find the sharpest real-money disagreement in the market. Some days it’s legend against legend. Most days — like this one — it’s one great investor breaking from the crowd.
We laid out both cases at full strength above, and we showed the money behind them: who is long, who is short, how much, and whether each side is adding or backing out.
The tell we’re watching: whether AI infrastructure capex growth actually decelerates in the next two reporting cycles, or whether the “priced for perfection” thesis keeps getting bailed out by beat-and-raise quarters. That’s the one thing Burry is underwriting that the crowd is, for now, pricing at close to zero probability.
When it breaks, we’ll call it. When we’re wrong, this page will say so — that’s the deal.
Not investment advice. This is commentary on a public, real-money disagreement — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. See our Financial Disclosures.
Sourcing note: Position size and framing are drawn from Sharp Money's editorial brief and public reporting on Scion Asset Management's 13F filings. Percentages in the Money Flow bar are illustrative, not precise float data. Verify current filings before treating any figure here as investment research.